Joshua vs. Ngannou roundtable: Is this week make-or-break for Francis Ngannou’s boxing career?

Francis Ngannou nearly flipped the combat sports world upside-down when he faced Tyson Fury this past October in his professional boxing debut. Now, Ngannou meets Anthony Joshua in his sophomore foray this Friday in a Saudi Arabia matchup that carries titanic stakes for both boxing’s heavyweight division and Ngannou’s future in MMA.

Ahead of Ngannou’s next great test, MMA Fighting’s Shaun Al-Shatti, Alexander K. Lee, and Damon Martin sidle back up to the roundtable to break down all angles of the marquee bout.

1. Is this week make-or-break for Ngannou’s boxing career?

Al-Shatti: On its face, this question may as well be blasphemy. God forbid Francis Ngannou loses to two of the top heavyweight champions of this era in a sport that essentially serves as his side hustle. What a disaster that would be. Especially after coming as close as a human can come to pulling off one of the greatest upsets in combat sports history in his professional boxing debut. How embarrassing. (Yes, that was written in sarcasm font.)

Look, Ngannou’s star turn in the sweet science is obviously a success regardless of how Friday night’s follow-up act in Riyadh goes. Anthony Joshua could waltz out there and blank Ngannou 10 rounds to zero and the former UFC heavyweight champ still outperformed even the wildest and most optimistic expectations. Once he landed the left hand that floored the lineal heavyweight champ of the world — and ensured that photo existed until the end of time — Ngannou was a made man. Everything else afterward is just gravy.

That being said, is it fair to step outside of the bubble and forecast what a post-Joshua world could look like if he falters? Sure. Ngannou would suddenly be sitting at 0-2 as a pro boxer and the novelty of his Fury stunner may wear off in a hurry, especially if Joshua puts on a clinic. Think about how short-term our memories are in pro sports. How quickly do you think that narrative shift within the boxing populace would be? From “the anomaly who should’ve beaten Fury” to “the MMA guy who got lucky against an unmotivated Tyson then instantly put back in his place,” the speed of their about-face might break records. Once that happens? Kiss the Fury rematch and other big-name showdowns goodbye.

At that point, Ngannou will still be obscenely rich and have bags of PFL bucks to fall back on, so who really cares? He won. But in that sense, it’s not nearly as sacrilegious as it may seem to view this as a make-or-break week for Francis Ngannou, Boxing Phenom.

Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images

Lee: I’ll be the cop-out guy and say that it depends on how the fight goes.

If it’s anything like the Fury fight, then Ngannou’s boxing career should be in good shape. Another thrilling knockdown could be too much to ask for (then again, if he can put a scare in Fury…), but if he flashes the power that made him the most menacing fighter in the UFC and has Joshua on the back foot for a handful of rounds, that’s more than enough to leave the people wanting more.

And if he ends up on the wrong end of another controversial decision? Then his reputation hardly takes a hit at all. He becomes the man that boxing’s best heavyweights can’t beat fair and square. He’s the man that’s always one shot away from turning the boxing world on its head. Most importantly, he maintains the reputation of being the UFC champion that boxing’s best big men should be eager to add to their list of conquests. Who do you think Oleksandr Usyk wants to fight more, Zhilei Zhang or Francis Ngannou? Right now, I’m betting the Saudis would shell out more dough for Usyk to take a crack at MMA’s lineal heavyweight king regardless of what Ngannou’s pro record reads.

The Ngannou boxing experiment has been too much fun to be discontinued just because of a zero in the win column. As long as Ngannou wants to lace them up, he remains the most intriguing name out there for any high-level heavyweight looking to secure the bag.

Martin: Let’s be honest here: Francis Ngannou is already playing with house money in his boxing career.

Nobody — including me — expected Ngannou to go out there, drop Tyson Fury, and then ultimately lose a razor-close decision many believe he deserved to win. Ngannou didn’t leave the ring in October with a victory on his record over arguably one of the best heavyweights in the past 25 years, but he pushed Fury to the absolute limit. That performance got Ngannou ranked in the WBC and it obviously earned him the chance to jump right back into boxing again for another marquee matchup against Anthony Joshua.

He’s going to get paid a boatload of money, and on paper, Ngannou may have a better chance of winning this time around. If there’s one major knock on Joshua, it’s that he doesn’t like to get hit. That’s the worst possible flaw when facing a human wrecking ball like Ngannou.

That’s a giant preamble to get to the broader point that wins still matter, and Ngannou can’t start his boxing career at 0-2 and expect to land a rematch with Fury, much less other major opportunities. There’s certainly no shame if Ngannou loses his first two pro fights to foes like Fury and Joshua, but it’s hard to imagine anybody ponying up $70 or $80 to watch “The Predator” throw hands with someone another rung down the heavyweight ladder.

Could he still go to war with Deontay Wilder in a fight between two of the heaviest punchers to ever lace up a pair of gloves? Sure. But Wilder’s loss to Joseph Parker sunk his stock and it’s tough to imagine a fight with Ngannou would seem all that appealing. Regardless of the results, Ngannou still deserves a ton of credit for making the jump and somehow willing these fights into existence, but an 0-2 record makes a third fight feel pretty unlikely.

2. If Ngannou wins, are we ever seeing him in MMA again?

Al-Shatti: Ha. Hahaha. Bwahahahahahahahahaha!

God no. Of course not. Why would we? I understand Francis is a generally good dude who likely wants to abide by the promise he made PFL and repay them for supporting Ngannou at a crucial crossroads of his career, but think about what we’re asking here. In this hypothetical scenario, Ngannou has already kinda sorta beaten Tyson Fury and now Anthony Joshua, aka two of the top heavyweight champions of this era. At that point, sorry y’all, he’s a boxer — and an elite one at that. At age 37, with whatever window remains of his peak athletic years, there’s no going back to wrestling practice and the relative chump change “The Predator” will earn in MMA when international superstardom and a deluge of eight-figure paydays are sitting there ripe for the picking in the squared circle.

If you ever want to see Ngannou chuck mitts with 6-foot-8 goliath Renan Ferreira in the PFL SmartCage, fall to your knees right now and pray to the blood gods for a Joshua rout.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Lee: Or course! And no, I’m not contradicting my answer from Question 1.

Sticking with my proposed scenario where, win or lose, Ngannou entertains us enough to keep the boxing wheels well-greased, the man will have options. The primary option will be to keep stepping into the ring to fight marquee names, but even Ngannou and his Saudi benefactors aren’t completely immune to boxing’s infamous political quagmire. Eventually it won’t be a matter of simply waving the money wand and making fights materialize out of thin air, so Ngannou will have to wait his turn.

What to do with that free time? How about a little mixing of the martial arts? The PFL awaits, and I’m a believer that Ngannou is a man of his word and will grace the SmartCage with his presence at least once. Ferreira is a sneaky good B-side (just look at him! He’s so big! Imagine Ngannou punching this dude!), so the pieces are already in place for Ngannou’s triumphant return to MMA.

Now, if Ngannou does beat Joshua, will he fight in MMA again more than once? Uhh … next question.

Martin: If Francis Ngannou pulls off the upset over Anthony Joshua, you might actually hear the audible weeping from PFL founder Donn Davis halfway around the world, because his biggest free agent signing to date will never actually fight in his organization.

Come on now, let’s be serious about this for just a second.

Ngannou has stated numerous times that his lifelong dream was to box long before he found MMA. Sure, he rose to fame in the UFC and the majority of his accomplishments happened in MMA, but nearly beating Fury and then actually beating Joshua should all but cement that Ngannou’s final opponent in the cage will be Ciryl Gane in the UFC.

Money aside — and make no mistake, Ngannou will earn a haul that would make Jordan Belfort blush — beating Joshua opens up so many opportunities in boxing that it’d almost be foolish to even consider MMA again. A win over Joshua sets up a future rematch with Fury, perhaps this time with heavyweight gold on the line. A win over Joshua could lead to a showdown with Oleksandr Usyk. A win over Joshua might even set up an immediate rematch where Ngannou becomes the A-side and takes home the lion’s share of the profits.

The alternative is go back to MMA and fight Renan Ferreira in the PFL.

Which would you choose?

3. Is it better for boxing if Ngannou wins or loses?

Lee: Better if he wins! Though what “better” means probably depends on where you stand as a boxing fan. I mean, I’m on the more casual side and I think Jake Paul is good for boxing, so mileage may certainly vary.

Even if you’re tired of interlopers from outside the squared circle taking attention away from boxers who have been grinding away for years, there’s no question that the PFL’s Ngannou and Paul have brought a whole different set of eyeballs to the sweet science. Whether those viewers will stick around once the bubble bursts and the dust clears (we’re mixing metaphors and martial arts around here) is another question, but the beauty of combat sports is that we can indulge in trends and fads while the business finds its footing. Ngannou taking a few crossover bouts doesn’t hurt boxing; if anything, it’s created a sense of urgency in the likes of Fury, Usyk, and Joshua, who have been criticized for avoiding the most demanded matchups in the past. Now look where they are.

In the off chance that Ngannou goes on an insane run and miraculously ends up clowning the current crop of top heayvweights, I can see how this might be unsettling for boxing fans. However, that prospect should generate more excitement than dread, and more importantly, set the stage for the next great heavyweight prospect to have a run at the big, bad UFC fighter who has taken over the sport they love.

Right now, Ngannou is a hero to MMA fans. Imagine how much money there is to be made if he becomes boxing’s next great villain.

Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images

Martin: Some boxing aficionados might not agree, but I think it’s fairly safe to say we know who Anthony Joshua is and who he’s going to be. He’s an incredibly talented boxer who just never quite became the best in the world. There’s nothing wrong with being the No. 3 or 4 guy in the sport.

But imagine if Francis Ngannou crosses over to boxing, takes Fury to a close decision, then beats one of the biggest heavyweight stars in Joshua? Sure, it upsets the status quo in boxing and that will inevitably cause a rash of MMA fighters to declare they could do the same (however unlikely that might be), but Ngannou would transcend to a different level of fame and he immediately becomes a huge threat to actually win the heavyweight title.

Meanwhile, Joshua already lost to Usyk twice, and it feels like if he ever wins a major belt, it’s going to come by default because other guys have retired or just grew old.

Plus, Ngannou seems like the kind of guy who just wants to fight the best so he can become the best. It’s doubtful he gets drawn into long, ugly negotiations that prevent some of the biggest fights in boxing from actually happening. I mean, talks about Fury and Joshua fighting have been going on for years, yet they’ve never actually met!

Ngannou injects a level of excitement into the heavyweight division that hasn’t been seen in some time. He’s an anomaly and a freak of nature who left MMA as the best in the world and could do the same in boxing. That’s a story the entire world would like to see unfold.

Al-Shatti: I’ll frame it like this: Imagine if Oleksandr Usyk crossed over into MMA then ran roughshod over Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall in his first two fights, all while repeatedly telling everybody who would listen that this whole mixed martial arts thing really isn’t nearly as difficult as advertised. Would that be good for MMA in the sense that suddenly the sport would have a new star with a wildly impressive background? Sure. Would it be bad for MMA in the sense that Usyk’s success would instantly become the ace in the hole in the perpetual boxing vs. MMA discourse? Absolutely. Would the permanent smugness forever emanating from the boxing community be inescapable for the rest of our lives? No doubt. And would the entire saga send a damaging (and potentially irrecoverable) message to the broader populace about MMA’s place in the combat sports pecking order? Without question.

So yeah, there’s good and bad aplenty for boxing if Ngannou’s sophomore effort looks anything like his improbable debut. But there’s a reason so much of the pugilistic world watched the rest of Fury vs. Ngannou through their fingers once that Ford Escort power nearly flipped everything upside-down. Some things are impossible to come back from.